19 December 2014
The latest population growth statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Sydney growing 10% more than anticipated in the strategic plan for the city’s growth says the Urban Taskforce.
“ The governments demographic projections for NSW are for an extra 100,000 people each year for 20 years but last financial years actual growth has been 109,100.” Says Urban Taskforce CEO Chris Johnson “ The big change has been in net interstate migration where the Department of Planning and Environment assume a net out migration of 20,000 people a year but last year this figure was only 6,900 people.”
“ The big reduction in net interstate migration if it continued could add 13,000 extra people each year to the NSW growth estimates. Over 20 years this is 260,000 in the state. With 80% of this normally occurring in Metropolitan Sydney this could add 200,000 people to the current 1.6 million figure for Sydney’s population increase. Clearly a figure of 1.8 million population growth would increase the need for managing this growth with more density in Sydney.”
“ The increasing number of people preferring NSW to other states could be a reflection of the better economic circumstances in the state and the fact that more people are now accepting that an urban living model in apartments is now a positive choice compared to living in low rise suburbs. The ABS data reinforces this swing to urban living with its analysis of population densities across Australian cities.”
“ Sydney’s density leads the country with 21 square kilometres of housing with over 8,000 people per square kilometre while Melbourne has only 1 square kilometre. By comparison the ABS indicate that London has 327 square kilometres at this density. At the next level of density, 5,000 – 8,000 people per kilometre, Sydney leads again at 93 square kilometres well ahead of Melbourne at 33 square kilometres and Brisbane with only 3 square kilometres.”
“ There are significant signals from the latest ABS data that must be taken into account in refining the planning for Sydney’s growth. While demographic trends change over time and population growth can vary there do seem to be some encouraging signs that Sydney and NSW have got their mojo back and that population growth is increasing over recent trends. Essentially this means that less people will leave NSW and Sydney than predicted and more immigrants are settling in Sydney than expected. These trends mean the planning system in NSW must support growth in a robust manner. The proposed Great Sydney Commission must be the major driver of growth across metropolitan Sydney and the establishment of the interim Ministerial Advisory Committee has become more urgent.