09 September 2013
The population growth figures released by the NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure indicate that Sydney will need at least a further 100,000 new houses than previously planned, says the Urban Taskforce.
“The March 2013 Draft Metropolitan Strategy for Sydney predicted a population growth of only 1.3 million people over the next 20 years but new data indicates this has risen to 1.5 million people”, says Urban Taskforce CEO, Chris Johnson. It seems that birth rates and overseas migration are running higher than previously expected which is good news for Sydney. Sydney only grew at 1.1% a year over the last decade compared to Melbourne’s 1.7% but it seems that we are now catching up to Melbournes growth rate.
The new planning system will be even more important as an enabler of new housing production across Sydney. The growth is predicted to be spread across inner city and fringe areas with the City of Sydney expecting a 58% increase, Auburn 55%, the Hills 55%, Liverpool 56% and Camden a massive 155%. The biggest demographic sector to require new housing is the over 65s with the City of Sydney expecting a 136% increase, Auburn 154%, the Hills 134%, Liverpool 182% and Camden again a massive 328%.
The big boom in housing for the over 65s over the next 20 years will mean many more houses for 1 or 2 people. This will push the number of houses needed up from the 85,000 extra based on current average household size to around 100,000 extra.
The major undersupply of housing for Sydney in recent years has begun to turn around but on these numbers an extra 5,000 new houses a year will be required. This means that we need to be producing at least 32,500 new dwellings every year. Our concern is that the recent increase in housing approvals for Sydney has been underpinned by around 12,000 approvals from the now abandoned Part 3A system. It is more important than ever that the new planning system for NSW enables the supply of new affordable housing for future generations of Sydney residents.
