Population and housing projections released

19 April 2010

The NSW Department of Planning has released population projections for New South Wales as a whole and for 13 regions for the period 2006 to 2036. These new projections reflect findings from the 2006 Census and the latest data on fertility, mortality and migration.

Household and dwelling projections have also been produced for New South Wales as a whole and regional breakdown for Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong and the balance of New South Wales for the same period.

Updated local area projections have been released. These projections translate the state and regional projections to the local level. We are advised that these projections also take into account demographic changes in areas covered by regional or subregional strategies.

These projects reveal that 60 per cent of NSW’s anticipated population growth of 2.25 million by 2036 and 69 per cent of Sydney’s projected population increase of 1.7 million by 2036 will come from natural increase, not migration. However, migration will be a bigger factor for regional areas – with only 33 per cent of the Hunter’s projected population growth and 31 per cent of the Illawarra’s projected population growth coming from natural increase.

While these figures may seem significant, they indicate a slowing level of growth for NSW. Between 1996 and 2001, NSW’s annual population growth rate was 1.2 per cent, however, these figures project a progressive decline in the annual growth rate to 0.8 per cent in 2036. Sydney’s annual population growth rate of just 1.1 per cent between 2011 and 2016 and then falling to 1 per cent by 2036 represents a 17 per cent decline in Sydney’s annual rate of population growth.

The Hunter’s population growth is projected to fall from 1.2 per cent a year between 1996 and 2001 to an annual rate of just 0.7 per cent in 2036. The Illawarra’s rate of growth similarly falls from 1.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent.

More information is available here.