| At the centre of the Albanese Government’s National Housing Accord is a commitment to deliver one million homes nation-wide over 5 years.
We are getting close to one year in and things look grim.
NSW comprises approximately 32% of Australia’s housing development. NSW will therefore need to deliver 320,000 of those 1 million new homes to meet its share. That’s 64,000 new dwellings, each year, over 5 years.
To put that in perspective, in 2021-22, there were just over 47,000 new home completions across all of NSW and it looks like a lower number will come in this year. NSW needs to pick up the pace and do so quickly or the National Housing Accord commitment looks unlikely.
The Commonwealth Government has committed to deliver 20,000 new social housing dwellings plus 20,000 new affordable homes. If you use the same percentage for the NSW component of this commitment (32%), the Commonwealth would deliver 12,800 social and affordable homes as part of their five-year undertaking – or 2,560 social and affordable housing dwellings annually.
The Commonwealth commitment to deliver 2,560 social and affordable homes each year in NSW, while certainly welcome and needed, will not really scratch the surface of the Housing Supply Crisis.
This breakdown of the figures reveals the magnitude of the total Housing Accord commitment and the critical role that will need to be played by the private sector if we are to have any hope in achieving the target.
Remember, NSW needs 64,000 new homes a year to meets its share of the Accord deal and they are already well behind par.
It is clear that the lions’ share of new housing supply – indeed, 96% of the target Housing Accord new housing stock – will need to be delivered by the private sector. This requires targets, incentives, planning approvals and a much faster process.
These figures highlight the need for a constructive dialogue with the private sector on how we can deliver on the Commonwealth Government’s ambitions, and it brings into sharp focus the important role of the State Planning systems in driving (or inhibiting) this objective.
An area where there needs to be more political attention and leadership is the role of State planning agencies, as a supporter of these goals. If success is to be realised, they are a key partner.
A recent report authored by Peter Tulip of the Centre for Independent Studies “Where should we build new housing?” highlights the role of the NSW planning system in inflating prices and through the GCC’s housing targets. The paper details the GCC’s lack of a clear rationale or evidentiary basis for targets set to date and says the result has been to effectively distort the allocation of housing across the Sydney basin.
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