2 There is a growing debate about the changing nature of the Sydney skyline as more and more people want to live in the city. Community groups raise concerns about congestion, the newspapers declare that “SYDNEY IS FULL’, and more and more cranes appear across the city. Clearly the city is changing, and the biggest change is the construction of large numbers of apartments, often in towers near railway stations. Back in 1991 these apartments were only 21% of Sydney’s homes. They are now 30% , and this could rise to an amazing 50% in 40 years time. Often the debate on the changing nature of the city is framed in negative ways regarding increasing density, but the reality is that those living in apartments also make up a significant part of the community. To better understand who lives in apartments and what the trends are towards a more urban way of living, Urban Taskforce commissioned demographers McCrindle to develop profiles on typical apartment dwellers. We were interested in what trends were happening as the apartment boom is well underway, particularly in terms of the age, family structure and attitudes of those living in apartments. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY McCrindle have analysed data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Census of Population and Housing 2016, 2011 and 1991 for the Sydney Significant Urban Area (SUA). They also conducted an online survey of 1,503 Sydneysiders in late November 2017 to gain insights into psychographic characteristics of Sydney’s households. Approximately half of those surveyed lived in apartments and half lived in detached houses. This enabled a comparison to be made between house and apartment dwellers’ attitudes and preferences. THE URBAN SHIFT In 1991 Australia’s population was 16 million with Sydney home to 3.1 million people as recorded in the Census of that year. Fast forward to today and the Australian population is close to 25 million and Sydney had grown to 4.4 million people. The Greater Sydney Commission’s Greater Sydney Region Plan states that Sydney will grow to 8 million people over the next 40 years to 2056. This dramatic growth that almost doubles the Sydney metropolitan population cannot be sustained by spreading the low density detached house suburban model further and further away from Sydney’s historic centre. There clearly needs to be a different model, and the current planning approval data demonstrates this. The Department of Planning and Environment’s Housing Monitor measures approvals and completions of detached houses and higher density homes that are mainly apartments. For the last few years the higher density homes have been running at close to 70% of all home approvals. There is a clear trend towards urban living in higher density homes which are mainly apartments, and the research by McCrindle indicates that this trend is likely to escalate. Our research has tried to find out just what is driving this trend. Clearly affordability is one reason families are opting for an apartment. The average house price in Sydney in 2007 was $524,000. Fast forward to 2017 and this has increased to $1,177,000. This is no doubt good news for those already owning a house, but bad news for those struggling to get into the housing market. But it seems that there are other drivers of the swing to apartment living, particularly for younger people. Many of these urban dwellers are more focused on lifestyle than asset accumulation. They use Uber rather than own a car, they use a shared swimming pool or gymnasium, they prefer public transport and walking. This issue of Urban Ideas presents the research by McCrindle and explains just who the various groups now preferring apartment living are. This is vital information for those planning for Sydney’s urban growth. Sydney is evolving from a suburban to an urban city form Urban Taskforce is keen to have responses to the proposals illustrated in this issue of URBAN IDEAS and we welcome comments to admin@urbantaskforce.com.au Chris Johnson AM Chief Executive Officer Urban Taskforce Australia The research by McCrindle was organised by Mark McCrindle and Tim Edwards. More detail on McCrindle is available at: T: +61 2 8824 3422 E: info@mccrindle.com.au W: mccrindle.com.au B: blog.mccrindle.com.au