b'APRIL 2021 APRIL 20211.Historical experience of migrationCOVID SEES NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION TURN NEGATIVEAustralia is a migrant-rich nation. Inflows of peopleThis rise was primarily led by the arrival of temporaryThe effective closure of the international border in March-2020, in response to COVID pandemic, has resulted have played a pivotal role in the nations evolution,workers, with the fast-paced expansion in miningin a seismic (albeit temporary) shift in migration flows. Inflows have ground to a halt as a result of the limited and they continue to do so; we estimate that migrationcapabilities to service the unprecedented surge innumber of exemptions available to migrants, with permanent and long-term arrivals falling to an average of has been responsible for, on average, 57% of annualChinas demand for commodities drawing in highlyjust 4,400 over AprilNovember last year, down from 63,000 during the same period in 2019. population growth between FY00-20.skilled people from around the world. Although theWhile the restrictions on departures and lower levels of emigration have weighed on outflows, the return of The importance of migration to Australia has made itinflow of temporary workers was momentarily disruptedsome temporary workers and students to their home countries has resulted in outflows outpacing inflows; a cornerstone of government policy. In recent decadesby the global financial crisis, it was quick to rebound inprovisional data for January 2021 shows that while the arrival of Australian citizens outpaced departures (by the focus has shifted, to attracting skilled migrants andFY11 before reaching a peak in FY12. 1,500), the departure of non-Australian non-visitors more than offset this, with a net outflow of 9,360 people. developing the export market for higher educationNet Overseas Migration was -34,800 in the September quarter 2020 (after -7,000 in the June quarter), and services. This has led to a diversification in the migrantFig 2. Net Overseas Migration, 2000-2020, Australia this position is set to remain until restrictions are eased and migration inflows can resume; the Centre for intake, with Asia becoming the predominant source ofPersons Population expects Net Overseas Migration to be -71,600 in FY21 and -21,600 in FY22.new arrivals.350,000 Fig 1. Australian Long-Term Arrivals and Departures2010-2020The most common pathways of migration into Australia300,000are through temporary working visas, of which some250,000 Percentagetransition to permanent visas once in Australia; student visas; and applications for Australias permanent200,000 20%migration scheme. While the composition of each group150,000is quite different, in aggregate and individually they all100,000 0%contribute a significant amount to the economic health50,000of the country. 0 -20%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192000-40%Fig 1. Arrivals by visa type: Permanent vs.Other States New South Wales AustraliaTemporary arrivals, Australia, FY19 -60%Source: BIS Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsVisas (No.) -80%200,000 While the flow of temporary workers has fallen back 180,000 -100%160,000 since the mining boom, international student inflows 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020140,000 have accelerated to fill the gap. And although their 120,000 motivation for moving to Australia is very different, like 100,000 the temporary workers this group are net contributorsArrivals Departures80,000 to the economy. Their university fees and other living 60,000 expenditure generate revenue for local institutions andSource: BIS Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics40,000 businesses. And in many cases the students work part 20,0000 time, adding to the labour force and the economys Permanent Visas Student Temp Skilled Holiday Worker productive potential. WorkerSource: BIS Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics In the years immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a new wave of student arrivals emerged from Asia, predominantly from China and, more 1.1 Trends in total Net Overseas Migration,recently from India. The weakening of the AUD (in line 2000-2020, Australia and NSW with the downturn in commodity prices) and rapidIn addition to underpinning a significant economic development in the region, has driven a sharp The shift in government policy in the late 1990sincrease in demand from international students, withproportion of economic growth, migrants towards encouraging permanent skilled migration (through the points system) and expanding temporarySydney and Melbourne capturing the lions share ofare also a significant net contributor to the arrivals (workers and students) resulted in a surge inthese inflowsas will be seen in the next section, these net overseas migration through the mid-2000s (peakinginflows have come hand-in-hand with an accelerationgovernments fiscal position. at around 315,000 migrants in FY08).in economic growth. This counter-cyclical pattern between temporary workers and international students has also meant that in aggregate, Net Overseas 6 Migration has remained relatively steady, at around7220,000 arrivals p.a. over the last decade.'