b'APRIL 2021 APRIL 2021Fig. 13. Breakdown of supply side drivers forFig. 14. Population projections Fig. 15. Difference in GDP relative to Centre forThis disparity in outcomes is also clear in the pace of potential output growth: Pre-Pandemic vs.Population trajectory growth in the economy. Under the case consistent with Post Pandemic, History & Forecast (FY01-50) Persons (000s) the Centre for Population projections, GDP growth 45,000,000 $Bn, 2018/19 prices averages 1.9% pa in the long run. In the low migration $M (FY18 terms) 40,000,000 300,000 case this falls to just 1.3% pa.200,0002,200,000 100,0002,150,000 35,000,000 02,100,000 -100,0002,050,000 30,000,000 -200,000-300,0002,000,000 25,000,000 -400,0001,950,000 -500,000 FY25 FY30 FY40 FY501,900,000 20,000,000FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY26 FY28 FY30 FY32 FY34 FY36 FY38 FY40 FY42 FY44 FY46 FY48 FY50 FY52 FY54 FY561,850,000 High migration Pre-COVID Low migration1,800,0001,750,000 ABS Series B Centre for Population Source: BIS Oxford EconomicsFY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Low migration High migrationPost-COVID Productive Potential Source: BIS Oxford Economics/ABS/TreasuryLoss of productive potential from COVID shockSource: BIS Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics The impact of different trajectories for migration on the total population is profound. Under the case where net 3.2The trajectory for migration and the economyoverseas migration returns to the levels broadly seen in the years immediately before the pandemic, by the in the long run late 2050s the majority of the loss due to the pandemic The Centre for Populations projections for migration arehas been recovered. In contrast, under a case where one possible outcome, but given the uncertainty aroundmigration fails to recover, and remains at the levels the long run impact of COVID on the global economyseen in the years before the shift in policy to encourage we have simulated the outcome for the economy underskilled migration (enacted by the Howard government a range of alternatives:in the early 2000s), there are 6 million fewer peopleA pre-pandemic profile, which is anchored to the ABSliving in Australia in 2057 when compared to the Centre Series B projections8 for Populations latest projections. A case where overseas migration settles at 250,000The growth accounting framework previously outlined a year, broadly similar to the peak seen in the yearscan also be used to quantify the outlook for the immediately prior to the pandemic economy under these alternative cases. The clearA case where overseas migration fails to recover,relationship between migration, the size of the working and settles at 100,000 a year, similar to the levelsage population and output means that under the seen in the late-1990s (and before the reformsstronger migration case (with net Overseas Migration implemented by the Howard government toequal to 250,000 pa), GDP in 2050 is $90bn higher than increase the intake) in the case consistent with the Centre for Population These alternative pathways are shown below, alongmigration assumption. In contrast, the low migration with the trajectory implied by the Centre for Population. case, where net inflows return to the levels seen in the late 1990s, GDP in 2050 is $457bn lower.Under the case consistent with the Centre for Population projections, GDP growth averages 1.9% pa in the long run. In the low migration case this falls to just 1.3% pa.20 218Series B captures the middle-ground assumptions for migration, births and deaths used by the ABS to generate their populationscenarios.'